Possible scenario
Controlled Export Restart
45% Chance
Beijing allows the approved 3.7 million metric tons to move gradually, reversing the earlier halt without fully flooding regional markets. Asian gasoline and diesel cracks ease from record levels but remain historically firm because the approval is limited to October volumes.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.