Possible scenario
Limited Sharing Holds
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Washington resumes intelligence support but keeps tighter controls on target selection. The Trump administration allows battlefield and air-defense intelligence while discouraging strikes on Russian oil infrastructure that could lift global fuel prices.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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