Possible scenario
Deeper Strike Support
18% Chance
Washington could decide that restoring intelligence sharing should also increase pressure on Russia’s military rear areas. This would be a more escalatory interpretation of the resumption, especially if it includes support for long-range Ukrainian strikes against command, logistics, or missile-launch infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.