Possible scenario
Conditional Deal Frays
25% Chance
The intelligence resumption remains fragile because Washington and Kyiv still disagree over attacks on Russian refineries. A renewed Ukrainian campaign against energy assets could push the United States to narrow or temporarily suspend selected intelligence streams again.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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