Possible scenario
Regional Security Deteriorates
20% Chance
The postponement is tied to deteriorating security conditions caused by the Iran war and risks to Gulf shipping routes. In this path, the market reads the delay as a signal that diplomacy is failing to contain regional escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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