Possible scenario
Governance Scrutiny Rises
20% Chance
A 97.5% ARC-AGI-3 score after OpenAI's AGI declaration increases pressure on labs to demonstrate safety testing, eval integrity, and deployment controls. The likely result is closer scrutiny rather than an immediate halt to commercial use.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Business Services -0.1%
Tickers
- GOOGL-2.2%
- MSFT-0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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