Possible scenario
Nationwide Crackdown Escalates
20% Chance
Police pressure fails to prevent wider mobilization, prompting President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's government to impose emergency measures, detain organizers, and restrict information flows. This would echo parts of the January 2022 crisis, though a full repeat remains less likely because security forces are now more prepared.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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