Possible scenario
Negotiated Narrower Tax
40% Chance
The six-month delay gives Illinois legislators, the Department of Revenue, and crypto industry lobbyists time to narrow the taxable base. The most likely compromise preserves a first-in-the-nation framework while reducing operational and political blowback.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- COIN+0.3%
- HOOD+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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