Possible scenario
Renewed Major Attack
15% Chance
Houthi forces attempt or execute another attack on Saudi energy infrastructure soon after the restart. The probability is lower than normalization, but recent events show that the threat remains credible.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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