Possible scenario
Exports Normalize
50% Chance
Saudi Arabia keeps the East-West Pipeline operating after repairs and security checks, allowing Yanbu exports to resume without major customer disruptions. This is the base case because the latest update confirms exports have restarted and Riyadh has strong incentives to demonstrate resilience.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Tickers
- XOM-0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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