Possible scenario
Paxton Survives Contest
30% Chance
Despite poor favorability numbers and lingering Republican divisions, Paxton benefits from Texas partisanship, Trump’s late intervention, and national GOP spending. Cornyn and Rove remain scapegoats inside MAGA circles, but the immediate electoral risk passes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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