Possible scenario
Democrats Capture Texas
35% Chance
Paxton remains damaged by impeachment-era baggage, intraparty hostility, and doubts among suburban Republicans. Trump’s attacks on John Cornyn and Karl Rove reinforce the perception that the GOP nominee never unified the party, allowing the Democratic nominee to win a rare Texas Senate pickup.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Finance -0.2%
- Healthcare -0.2%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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