Possible scenario
Partisan Narrative Shifts
20% Chance
Republican campaigns use the scandal to argue that Democratic momentum was overstated, especially in the 43 toss-up districts previously highlighted by Wedgewood. The market impact depends on whether the scandal meaningfully changes expectations for House control.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Energy +0.3%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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