Possible scenario
Forecasts Rapidly Repriced
40% Chance
Major aggregators quarantine all Wedgewood Polling results and rerun their 2026 models. Because the fabricated surveys had shown unusually strong Democratic numbers, the most likely effect is a narrower Democratic advantage and higher uncertainty rather than a clean reversal.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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