Possible scenario
Ukraine War Hardens
30% Chance
The statement becomes part of a broader justification for refusing concessions over Ukraine and rejecting post-Cold War security arrangements. This is a realistic extension of the Kremlin's long-running argument that NATO expansion and Western promises invalidated the old settlement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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