Possible scenario
Anti-West Retaliation Expands
15% Chance
The Kremlin translates the betrayal narrative into more active pressure on Western governments, including cyber activity, sanctions countermeasures, and energy leverage. This scenario is less likely than rhetorical continuity but consistent with Russia's pattern since 2022.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Utilities -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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