Possible scenario
Supply Disruption Deepens
18% Chance
Labor disruptions, unplanned outages or inventory drawdowns make the diesel shortage worse before it improves. This would be a larger sector shock, with refiners benefiting from margins and fuel-intensive sectors absorbing immediate losses.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.5%
- Industrials -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.