Possible scenario
Refinery Relief Arrives
28% Chance
Refinery restarts, import cargoes or regulatory waivers ease the worst of the diesel squeeze. The immediate market effect favors transportation and consumer-facing companies while reducing the diesel-crack premium for refiners.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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