Possible scenario
Diesel Stays Elevated
44% Chance
Diesel prices remain near record levels in California and stay firm nationally as refinery capacity and inventories remain tight. Freight carriers, farmers, retailers and local governments pass through higher fuel costs, keeping pressure on goods inflation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Industrials -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.