Possible scenario
BOJ Tightening Accelerates
25% Chance
The BOJ may judge that persistent inflation and a weak credibility backdrop require a clearer tightening path. That would turn the yield spike into a policy repricing, putting additional pressure on global bonds and rate-sensitive assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.7%
- Utilities -1.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.