Possible scenario
Retaliation Stays Contained
28% Chance
Iran retaliates through missiles, drones, Hezbollah, Iraqi militias and the Houthis, but both Tehran and Jerusalem avoid steps that would guarantee direct U.S. entry. This path keeps the conflict dangerous but still below an all-out regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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