Possible scenario
Diplomatic Restraint Returns
20% Chance
The United States, Europe and Gulf states push Israel to limit regime-change operations and prioritize nuclear monitoring, sanctions and back-channel deterrence. This outcome is plausible because Washington wants to avoid an oil shock and a broader war while still supporting Israeli security objectives.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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