Possible scenario
Covert Pressure Campaign
34% Chance
Israel focuses on covert action, cyber operations, targeted strikes and support for anti-regime networks rather than an immediate ground or large-scale air war. This is the most likely path because it matches Israel's stated goal of preventing nuclear recovery while limiting direct exposure to a broader regional conflict.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.