Possible scenario
Euro Weakness Deepens
20% Chance
The euro could fall further if investors shift attention from U.K. strength to euro-area weakness. French fiscal concerns, soft growth, and ECB easing expectations would reinforce the euro's underperformance against sterling.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.7%
- Industrials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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