Possible scenario
Trade Drag Deepens
20% Chance
The price surge combines with tariff news to produce a stagflationary reading: higher prices but weaker future volumes. This outcome would pressure export-oriented sectors and increase short-term risk aversion.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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