Possible scenario
Fed Repricing Intensifies
45% Chance
The 2.2% export-price jump reinforces the view that goods inflation is not cooling quickly enough, especially after Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr's recent inflation warning. Markets price a firmer higher-for-longer Fed stance over the next 1-2 trading days.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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