Possible scenario
Exporter Revenue Boost
25% Chance
Investors focus on the positive nominal-revenue implication for U.S. exporters, particularly LNG, agriculture, and industrial goods. This is plausible because recent data showed record goods exports and a third-quarter jump in LNG shipments.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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