Possible scenario
Limited Maritime Incident
28% Chance
A tactical encounter occurs in or near the Strait of Hormuz, but both Washington and Tehran stop short of sustained combat. This is the most plausible escalation path because the area is crowded, heavily surveilled, and prone to miscalculation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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