Possible scenario
Diplomatic Off-Ramp
20% Chance
The deployment is paired with back-channel diplomacy through Oman, Qatar, or European intermediaries. Saudi airspace cooperation gives Washington more military flexibility, but also creates leverage for a negotiated reduction in harassment.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Consumer Services +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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