Possible scenario
Limited Deal Holds
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Washington and Beijing keep the agreement narrow, focused on practical tariff exclusions, agricultural purchases, customs treatment, and limited licensing. Both Trump and Xi have incentives to preserve the 2027 truce without committing to a full structural trade settlement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.8%
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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