Possible scenario
Broader Mini Deal
25% Chance
The subset agreement becomes a platform for a broader mini-deal that locks in tariff reductions, purchase commitments, and regular enforcement meetings. This is less likely than a limited accord, but the 2026 visit creates political room for both governments to claim a win.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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