Possible scenario
Health Rumors Fade
18% Chance
Speculation about Xi's health remains the main media focus after he skips the corporate delegation. Beijing either quickly contains the story with controlled visuals or the absence lingers long enough to create a modest risk-off reaction.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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