Possible scenario
U.S. Escalates Pressure
25% Chance
The Trump administration turns the UN walkout into a broader campaign to isolate Havana diplomatically and financially. The most likely tools are targeted sanctions, tighter enforcement on fuel logistics, and pressure on regional governments to distance themselves from Díaz-Canel.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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