Possible scenario
Crackdown, Regime Endures
35% Chance
The Cuban Communist Party and security services contain the latest unrest through arrests, communications controls, and rationing measures. This is the base case because Cuba's state-security apparatus remains cohesive and the opposition lacks unified national organization.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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