Possible scenario
Civilian Deal Substitution
27% Chance
China avoids direct armaments purchases but offers politically useful civilian purchases, especially Boeing aircraft, soybeans, and possibly safety or aviation equipment. This would fit the May 2026 pattern in which Trump said China would buy jets and soybeans, while steering clear of sensitive military transfers.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
- BA+1.6%
- GE+0.6%
- ADM+0.5%
- +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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