Possible scenario
Serbia Diversifies Gradually
21% Chance
Serbia may use the talks with Moscow to buy time while expanding alternatives through Azerbaijan, regional interconnectors, and LNG access via Greece or Croatia. This would reduce geopolitical risk without abruptly ending Russian supply.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.2%
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.