Possible scenario
Sanctions Pressure Rises
27% Chance
The United States and European Union could view deeper Serbia-Russia energy cooperation as a sanctions-evasion risk, especially after prior measures against Gazprombank and Russian energy institutions. This would put pressure on Belgrade, NIS, and payment channels tied to Russian gas.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Utilities -0.1%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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