Possible scenario
Energy Ties Continue
42% Chance
Belgrade preserves its pragmatic energy relationship with Moscow while avoiding an explicit break with the EU. Vucic is likely to prioritize winter gas security and price stability, while Putin uses Serbia to show Russia still has European partners.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Utilities +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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