Possible scenario
Narrowed Records Review
40% Chance
The most likely path is a court-supervised compromise: DOJ keeps some subpoena power but must use privilege screening and tighter relevance limits. This fits the current ruling, which limits access without shutting the investigation down.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.