Possible scenario
Latvia Veto Holds
45% Chance
Latvia maintains its objection to removing Mikhail Fridman and Petr Aven, and the EU prioritizes preserving the three-year sanctions extension over resolving the delisting dispute. This is the most likely path because Baltic states have strong political incentives to resist any perceived softening toward Russian oligarchs while the war continues.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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