Possible scenario
EU Bargaining Escalates
20% Chance
The sanctions extension becomes entangled with wider EU unanimity bargaining, including Hungary's resistance to large Ukraine financing packages. This would not amount to a sanctions collapse, but it would reinforce concerns about EU decision-making fatigue.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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