Possible scenario
Injunction Slows Overhaul
40% Chance
The most likely path is that the judge treats the East Potomac work as more than routine maintenance and keeps a meaningful halt in place while demanding a fuller record from DOJ and the National Park Service. The 15-month overhaul plan is not permanently killed, but near-term construction, tree removal, and course closures are slowed.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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