Possible scenario
Wider Sabotage Campaign
20% Chance
Additional attacks on surveillance, telecom links, or power feeds in the Baltic region make the Latvia case appear part of a coordinated campaign. The risk of retaliatory sanctions, NATO consultations, and transport or energy disruption rises, creating a modest risk-off market reaction.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.6%
- Telecommunications -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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