Possible scenario
Contained Hybrid Incident
45% Chance
Latvian authorities attribute the surveillance damage to a deliberate hybrid operation but keep the response limited to criminal investigation, repairs, and additional patrols. EU and NATO statements back Riga, but no immediate sanctions or military moves follow because the incident remains localized.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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