Possible scenario
Negotiated Resignation
18% Chance
Guilfoyle steps down voluntarily after talks with the White House, allowing Trump to avoid a public firing. This creates a political off-ramp while leaving unresolved questions about the undisclosed lobbyist and U.S. LNG advocacy.
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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