Possible scenario
Talks Resume Slowly
45% Chance
The diesel waiver and energy truce create just enough incentive for Moscow to return to a formal negotiation channel, likely with U.S. and Turkish mediation. Kyiv remains cautious, so the most plausible path is procedural progress rather than a near-term comprehensive peace deal.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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