Possible scenario
Deal Stalls
20% Chance
Russia treats the diesel arrangement as a first step and demands relief well beyond what Kyiv or U.S. lawmakers will accept. The energy truce may formally remain in place, but the diplomatic channel loses momentum.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.