Possible scenario
Congressional Backlash Builds
25% Chance
Lawmakers skeptical of any China defense arrangement push for hearings, records, and a formal statement on Taiwan arms policy. The issue becomes a domestic political fight over export controls, Taiwan deterrence, and executive-branch messaging.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Technology -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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