Possible scenario
Beijing Tests Ambiguity
20% Chance
China uses the episode to argue that Washington’s Taiwan policy is inconsistent and to press for restrictions on arms sales to Taipei. The market impact depends on whether Beijing keeps the response rhetorical or pairs it with military signaling near Taiwan.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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