Contained Takedown

The most likely outcome is that Microsoft, Coinbase, and law enforcement keep the phishing infrastructure disrupted without uncovering a much larger compromise. Victim notifications, token resets, and domain seizures continue, but the event remains a contained cybercrime takedown rather than a systemic market event.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.